Brazil Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.84 (0.75, 1.01) 0.84 (0.75, 1.01) 0.87 (0.74, 1) 0.97 (0.85, 1.1) 0.93 (0.78, 1.06)
1 0.77 (0.73, 0.81) 0.77 (0.73, 0.81) 0.72 (0.62, 0.8) 0.86 (0.77, 0.95) 0.83 (0.76, 0.91)
2 0.77 (0.72, 0.82) 0.77 (0.72, 0.82) 0.76 (0.67, 0.87) 0.82 (0.75, 0.9) 0.79 (0.72, 0.87)
3 0.83 (0.74, 0.92) 0.75 (0.71, 0.84) 0.83 (0.74, 0.91) 0.83 (0.77, 0.92) 0.82 (0.73, 0.9)
4 0.79 (0.69, 0.9) 0.8 (0.72, 0.91) 0.78 (0.69, 0.88) 0.79 (0.68, 0.91) 0.76 (0.67, 0.86)
5 0.83 (0.73, 0.94) 0.82 (0.73, 0.91) 0.85 (0.71, 0.99) 0.88 (0.75, 1.03) 0.84 (0.72, 0.96)
6 0.9 (0.77, 1.08) 0.96 (0.83, 1.1) 0.94 (0.85, 1.06) 0.98 (0.87, 1.09) 0.83 (0.75, 0.93)
7 0.91 (0.8, 1.07) 0.88 (0.79, 0.98) 0.95 (0.87, 1.06) 1.03 (0.93, 1.15) 0.96 (0.87, 1.06)
8 1 (0.92, 1.09) 1.01 (0.9, 1.14) 0.99 (0.91, 1.08) 1.05 (0.96, 1.15) 1 (0.92, 1.09)
9 0.75 (0.68, 0.79) 0.75 (0.71, 0.79) 0.73 (0.63, 0.82) 0.88 (0.78, 0.98) 0.85 (0.77, 0.95)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
0 0.939 0.061 0.000 0.000
1 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2 0.974 0.026 0.000 0.000
3 0.000 0.866 0.134 0.000
4 0.139 0.327 0.535 0.000
5 0.891 0.000 0.109 0.000
6 0.537 0.059 0.000 0.404
7 0.673 0.000 0.066 0.261
8 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
9 0.872 0.128 0.000 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0 E00_99 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.4265094
1 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.0471435
2 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.3730114
3 cJ20_J22 0.4029576 K00_99 0.3267920 L00_99 0.2896041
4 pandemic 1.0000000 E00_99 0.6871406 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.6276355
5 pandemic 1.0000000 A41 0.8532965 K80 0.8119345
6 pandemic 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.5086755 E10_14 0.4164171
7 A41 0.9999999 I00_99 0.9999978 K00_99 0.1103992
8 A41 0.5967621 I00_99 0.4746547 H00_99_SY 0.4363620
9 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 H00_99_SY 0.0590328

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.84 (0.75, 1.01) cJ20_J22 1 0.91 (0.75, 1.1) E00_99 1 0.91 (0.74, 1.13) S00_T99 0.36 0.88 (0.76, 1.15)
1 0.77 (0.73, 0.81) cJ20_J22 1 0.75 (0.71, 0.8) E40_46 1 0.75 (0.7, 0.8) K00_99 0.05 0.75 (0.69, 0.79)
2 0.77 (0.72, 0.82) cJ20_J22 1 0.79 (0.72, 0.87) E40_46 1 0.74 (0.68, 0.85) P00_99 0.37 0.75 (0.67, 0.8)
3 0.75 (0.71, 0.84) cJ20_J22 0.4 0.79 (0.72, 0.85) K00_99 0.33 0.74 (0.7, 0.78) L00_99 0.29 0.74 (0.69, 0.79)
4 0.8 (0.72, 0.91) pandemic 1 0.73 (0.66, 0.81) E00_99 0.69 0.74 (0.64, 0.84) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.63 0.72 (0.62, 0.87)
5 0.82 (0.73, 0.91) pandemic 1 0.64 (0.57, 0.73) A41 0.85 0.78 (0.66, 0.86) K80 0.81 0.72 (0.64, 0.79)
6 0.96 (0.83, 1.1) pandemic 1 0.85 (0.75, 1.1) Z00_99 0.51 0.85 (0.74, 0.96) E10_14 0.42 1.01 (0.79, 1.09)
7 0.88 (0.79, 0.98) A41 1 1.02 (0.85, 1.18) I00_99 1 1 (0.9, 1.11) K00_99 0.11 1.05 (0.84, 1.16)
8 1.01 (0.9, 1.14) A41 0.6 1.04 (0.88, 1.15) I00_99 0.47 1.01 (0.9, 1.11) H00_99_SY 0.44 0.97 (0.86, 1.09)
9 0.75 (0.71, 0.79) cJ20_J22 1 0.85 (0.78, 0.95) E40_46 1 0.8 (0.7, 1) H00_99_SY 0.06 0.76 (0.68, 0.91)

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