Synthetic Controls

Brazil Results

combine estimates

	Stacking Estimate (95% CI)	SC Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend Estimate (95% CI)	Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI)	STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.84 (0.75, 1.01)	0.84 (0.75, 1.01)	0.87 (0.74, 1)	0.97 (0.85, 1.1)	0.93 (0.78, 1.06)
1	0.77 (0.73, 0.81)	0.77 (0.73, 0.81)	0.72 (0.62, 0.8)	0.86 (0.77, 0.95)	0.83 (0.76, 0.91)
2	0.77 (0.72, 0.82)	0.77 (0.72, 0.82)	0.76 (0.67, 0.87)	0.82 (0.75, 0.9)	0.79 (0.72, 0.87)
3	0.83 (0.74, 0.92)	0.75 (0.71, 0.84)	0.83 (0.74, 0.91)	0.83 (0.77, 0.92)	0.82 (0.73, 0.9)
4	0.79 (0.69, 0.9)	0.8 (0.72, 0.91)	0.78 (0.69, 0.88)	0.79 (0.68, 0.91)	0.76 (0.67, 0.86)
5	0.83 (0.73, 0.94)	0.82 (0.73, 0.91)	0.85 (0.71, 0.99)	0.88 (0.75, 1.03)	0.84 (0.72, 0.96)
6	0.9 (0.77, 1.08)	0.96 (0.83, 1.1)	0.94 (0.85, 1.06)	0.98 (0.87, 1.09)	0.83 (0.75, 0.93)
7	0.91 (0.8, 1.07)	0.88 (0.79, 0.98)	0.95 (0.87, 1.06)	1.03 (0.93, 1.15)	0.96 (0.87, 1.06)
8	1 (0.92, 1.09)	1.01 (0.9, 1.14)	0.99 (0.91, 1.08)	1.05 (0.96, 1.15)	1 (0.92, 1.09)
9	0.75 (0.68, 0.79)	0.75 (0.71, 0.79)	0.73 (0.63, 0.82)	0.88 (0.78, 0.98)	0.85 (0.77, 0.95)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups	Synthetic Controls	Time trend	Time trend (no offset)	STL+PCA
0	0.939	0.061	0.000	0.000
1	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
2	0.974	0.026	0.000	0.000
3	0.000	0.866	0.134	0.000
4	0.139	0.327	0.535	0.000
5	0.891	0.000	0.109	0.000
6	0.537	0.059	0.000	0.404
7	0.673	0.000	0.066	0.261
8	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
9	0.872	0.128	0.000	0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0	E00_99	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	ach_noj	0.4265094
1	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	K00_99	0.0471435
2	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	P00_99	0.3730114
3	cJ20_J22	0.4029576	K00_99	0.3267920	L00_99	0.2896041
4	pandemic	1.0000000	E00_99	0.6871406	A10_B99_nopneumo	0.6276355
5	pandemic	1.0000000	A41	0.8532965	K80	0.8119345
6	pandemic	1.0000000	Z00_99	0.5086755	E10_14	0.4164171
7	A41	0.9999999	I00_99	0.9999978	K00_99	0.1103992
8	A41	0.5967621	I00_99	0.4746547	H00_99_SY	0.4363620
9	E40_46	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	H00_99_SY	0.0590328

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.84 (0.75, 1.01)	cJ20_J22	1	0.91 (0.75, 1.1)	E00_99	1	0.91 (0.74, 1.13)	S00_T99	0.36	0.88 (0.76, 1.15)
1	0.77 (0.73, 0.81)	cJ20_J22	1	0.75 (0.71, 0.8)	E40_46	1	0.75 (0.7, 0.8)	K00_99	0.05	0.75 (0.69, 0.79)
2	0.77 (0.72, 0.82)	cJ20_J22	1	0.79 (0.72, 0.87)	E40_46	1	0.74 (0.68, 0.85)	P00_99	0.37	0.75 (0.67, 0.8)
3	0.75 (0.71, 0.84)	cJ20_J22	0.4	0.79 (0.72, 0.85)	K00_99	0.33	0.74 (0.7, 0.78)	L00_99	0.29	0.74 (0.69, 0.79)
4	0.8 (0.72, 0.91)	pandemic	1	0.73 (0.66, 0.81)	E00_99	0.69	0.74 (0.64, 0.84)	A10_B99_nopneumo	0.63	0.72 (0.62, 0.87)
5	0.82 (0.73, 0.91)	pandemic	1	0.64 (0.57, 0.73)	A41	0.85	0.78 (0.66, 0.86)	K80	0.81	0.72 (0.64, 0.79)
6	0.96 (0.83, 1.1)	pandemic	1	0.85 (0.75, 1.1)	Z00_99	0.51	0.85 (0.74, 0.96)	E10_14	0.42	1.01 (0.79, 1.09)
7	0.88 (0.79, 0.98)	A41	1	1.02 (0.85, 1.18)	I00_99	1	1 (0.9, 1.11)	K00_99	0.11	1.05 (0.84, 1.16)
8	1.01 (0.9, 1.14)	A41	0.6	1.04 (0.88, 1.15)	I00_99	0.47	1.01 (0.9, 1.11)	H00_99_SY	0.44	0.97 (0.86, 1.09)
9	0.75 (0.71, 0.79)	cJ20_J22	1	0.85 (0.78, 0.95)	E40_46	1	0.8 (0.7, 1)	H00_99_SY	0.06	0.76 (0.68, 0.91)

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